November 10, 2023
Earthquake Research Committee,
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion

Evaluation of Seismic Activities for October 2023

1 Major Seismic Activities

* In the ocean area near Torishima Island (about 100 km southwest of Torishima Island), since October 2 till October 9, seismic activity was active such that there were 4 earthquakes of magnitude (M) 6.0 or over. In the series of seismic activity, the activity on October 5, 6, and 9 caused tsunami. Of these, the seismic activity on 9th caused tsunami observed along the coasts of the Izu-Ogasawara Islands and the area extending from Chiba to Okinawa prefectures, such as that of 0.7 m observed at Yaene, Hachijojima Island.

2 Nationwide Seismic Activities by Region

(1) Hokkaido Region

There was no remarkable activity.

(2) Tohoku Region

There was no remarkable activity.

(3) Kanto-Chubu Region

* I In the crust of the Noto region, Ishikawa prefecture, the number of earthquakes is increasing since about 2018, then the seismic activity became high since December 2020, and it has become higher since about July 2021. From December 1, 2020 till November 09, 2023 at 08 o'clock (JST), there occurred 495 earthquakes with seismic intensity 1 or over observed: the state of high seismic activity continues.
In the series of the seismic activity, the largest earthquake is the M6.5 earthquake on May 5, 2023 at 14:42 (JST) offshore of the Noto Peninsula (#1). The series of the seismic activity before the occurrence of the M6.5 earthquake, was mainly observed in the land area and the coastal area of the northeastern Noto Peninsula. After the occurrence of the M6.5 earthquake, the seismic activity then extends further to the northern and eastern sea area. Since October 1 till November 9 at 08 o'clock (JST), there occurred 12 earthquakes with seismic intensity 1 or over observed: the largest is the M3.6 earthquake occurring on October 25. The seismic activity is decreasing as time passes, and as a whole the number of earthquakes has returned in general to that of the stage before the occurrence of the M6.5 earthquake.
According to the result of the GNSS observation, since about December 2020 till the occurrence of the M6.5 earthquake, the following crustal deformation had been observed: the cumulative displacement of 1 cm over in horizontal direction and the uplift of 4 cm or so at the Suzu observatory, Suzu City, Ishikawa prefecture and so on. The GNSS observation and the analysis of the synthetic aperture radar images by Advanced Land Observing Satellite "the Daichi-2" showed that accompanying the M6.5 earthquake, the crustal deformations of the order maximum 20 cm was observed at the surrounding area of the epicenter. The deformation in different tendency from the pre-earthquake stage observed at several observatories after the M6.5 event has recently decayed, and it seems that the tendency in the pre-earthquake stage has returned.
Based on the situation of the seismic activity and the crustal deformation, the series of the seismic activity will continue for the time being. We should continue to pay attention for strong shaking and tsunami.

* With regard to the seismic activity in the ocean area near Torishima Island, refer to another report (Evaluation of the Seismic Activity in the Ocean Area near Torishima Island).

(4) Kinki-Chugoku-Shikoku Region

There was no remarkable activity.

(5) Kyushu-Okinawa Region

* On October 16, there was an M6.0 earthquake at a depth of approximately 20 km (due to CMT solution), in the ocean area near Miyakojima Island. The focal mechanism showed a normal fault type with a tension axis in an NE-SW direction. This event occurred within the continental plate.

* On October 24, there was an M5.9 earthquake at a depth of approximately 35 km under the ocean area near Yonagunijima Island. The focal mechanism had a compression axis in an NNW-SSE direction.
In the region around the recent event, there have sometimes been earthquakes of M5.0 or over. On April 20, 2015 at 10:42 (JST), there was an M6.8 earthquake, on the same day at 20:45 (JST) an M5.0 earthquake, and on the same day at 20:59 (JST) an M6.4 earthquake occurred. Also on October 23, 2018 at 13:34 (JST) an M6.1 earthquake occurred and on the next day 24th at 01:04 (JST) an M6.3 earthquake occurred.

(6) Around the Nankai Trough

* There has been observed no unusual change which indicates that the possibility of occurrence of a great earthquake along the Nankai Trough has relatively raised compared to the normal time.

Supplement (Seismic Activity Since November 1)

* On November 1, there was an M4.9 earthquake at a depth of approximately 45 km under the Kiisuido Strait. The focal mechanism showed a strike-slip fault type with a tension axis in an NW-SE direction. This event occurred within the Philippine Sea plate.

* On November 6, there was an M5.0 earthquake at a depth of approximately 55 km, offshore of Fukushima prefecture. The focal mechanism showed a reverse fault type with a compression axis in an NNW-SSE direction. This event occurred within the Pacific plate.


   #1: [the Noto region, Ishikawa prefecture] was the regional name of the epicenter used in the JMA announcement.

Note: GNSS is a general name of satellite positioning system such as GPS.


Supplementary Information to the Evaluation of Seismic Activities for October 2023

November 10, 2023
Earthquake Research Committee,

1 Major Seismic Activities

The following are the numbers of earthquakes by magnitude (M) that occurred in Japan and the surrounding area during October 2023.

(Reference)

The following events for the period from October 2022 to late September 2023 have been listed as "Major Seismic Activities" in monthly "Evaluation of Seismic Activities."

  – Offshore East of the Osumi Peninsula M5.9 on October 2, 2022
(Depth of approximately 30 km)
  – Offshore of Fukushima Prefecture  M5.0 on October 21, 2022
(Depth of approximately 30 km)
  – Under the Southern Ibaraki  M4.9 on November 9, 2022 Prefecture
(Depth of approximately 50 km)
  – Offshore of Kushiro  M6.0 on February 25, 2023
(Depth of approximately 65 km)
  – Offshore of the Noto Peninsula  M6.5 on May 5, 2023
(Depth of approximately 10 km)
  – Under the Southern Chiba Prefecture  M6.5 on May 5, 2023
(Depth of approximately 10 km)
  – In the Ocean Area Near Tokara Islands
  (Near Kuchinoshima and Nakanoshima Islands)
 M5.1 on May 13, 2023
  – In the Ocean Area Near Niijima and Kozushima Islands  M5.3 on May 22, 2023
(Depth of approximately 10 km)
  – Offshore East of Chiba Prefecture  M6.2 on May 26, 2023
(Depth of approximately 50 km)
  – Offshore of Tomakomai  M6.2 on June 11, 2023
(Depth of approximately 140 km)

   

2 Nationwide Seismic Activities by Region

(1) Hokkaido Region

There is no supplementary information for Hokkaido region.

(2) Tohoku Region

There is no supplementary information for Tohoku region.

(3) Kanto-Chubu Region

There is no supplementary information for Kanto-Chubu region.

(4) Kinki-Chugoku-Shikoku Region

– According to the GNSS observation, the crustal deformation different from the ordinary trend in the central Shikoku has been observed from about spring 2019. This phenomenon is considered to be caused by a long-term slow slip around the central Shikoku at the deeper part of the boundary between the Philippine Sea and the continental plates.

(5) Kyushu-Okinawa Region

– According to the GNSS observation, the crustal deformation different from the ordinary trend in the southern Kyushu has been observed from early 2023. This phenomenon is considered to be caused by a long-term slow slip around the southern Hyuganada Sea at the deeper part of the boundary between the Philippine Sea and the continental plates. Recently this crustal deformation seems to be slowing down.

(6) Around the Nankai Trough

– "There has been observed no unusual change which indicates that the possibility of occurrence of a great earthquake along the Nankai Trough has relatively raised compared to the normal time.":
(This evaluation is in agreement with the views presented at the regular meeting on November 8 of the Assessment Committee for Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough (reference below).)

(Reference)

Recent Crustal Activity Around the Nankai Trough (Seismological and Volcanological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, November 8, 2023)
"In the present, there has been observed no unusual change which indicates that the possibility of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough has relatively raised compared to the normal time. (Excerpted)"

Reference 1
Earthquakes that are described in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity" (Monthly Report of Seismic Activity in Japan) have the following features.

  1. Events of M6.0 or greater, or events that have maximum seismic intensity 4 or greater
  2. Onshore events of M4.5 or greater that have maximum seismic intensity 3 or greater
  3. Events under the ocean areas of M5.0 or greater that have maximum seismic intensity 3 or greater

Reference 2
Information that is described in the "Supplementary Information to the Evaluation" includes:

  1. Reference information related to the seismic activity described in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity"
  2. Recent earthquake activity over the past year related to the events described in "Major Seismic Activity" in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity"
  3. Seismic activity that has been evaluated, but not included in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity" because it is within normal bounds and not prominent
  4. A sequence of slow-slip events of estimated M6.0 or greater and accompanying low-frequency earthquakes (tremors)