October 9, 2015
Earthquake Research Committee,
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion

Evaluation of Seismic Activities for September 2015

1 Major Seismic Activities

* On September 12, there was a magnitude (M) 5.2 earthquake in the Tokyo Bay. The maximum seismic intensity 5 Lower was observed in Tokyo Metropolis and damage with injured persons was caused by this event.

* On September 17, there was a moment magnitude (Mw) 8.3 earthquake in the central Chile coast [Offshore central Chile]. Tsunami caused by this event was observed along the Pacific coasts of Japan from Hokkaido to Kyushu, at Okinawa prefecture and Izu-Ogasawara Islands.

2 Nationwide Seismic Activities by Region

(1) Hokkaido Region

* On September 12, there was a M5.4 earthquake at a depth of approximately 55 km offshore Urakawa. The focal mechanism of this event showed a reverse fault type with a compression axis in a WNW-ESE direction. This event occurred at the boundary between the Pacific and the continental plates.

(2) Tohoku Region

There was no remarkable activity.

(3) Kanto-Chubu Region

* On September 2, there was a M6.1 earthquake under the ocean area near Torishima. The focal mechanism of this event showed a reverse fault type with a compression axis in an E-W direction.

* On September 8, there was a M4.6 earthquake at a depth of approximately 25 km in the Suruga Bay. The focal mechanism of this event showed a strike-slip fault type with a tension axis in an NW-SE direction. This event occurred within the Philippine Sea plate.

* On September 12, there was a M5.2 earthquake at a depth of approximately 55 km under the Tokyo Bay. The focal mechanism of this event had a tension axis in an NW-SE direction. This event occurred within the Philippine Sea plate.

* In the GNSS data for the Tokai region, there has been no change of activity which is likely to be associated with the Tokai earthquake.

(4) Kinki-Chugoku-Shikoku Region

There was no remarkable activity.

(5) Kyushu-Okinawa Region

* On September 4, there was a M5.3 earthquake offshore north-east of Amami Oshima. The focal mechanism of this event showed a normal fault type with a tension axis in a WNW-ESE direction.

(6) Other Region

* On September 17 at 07:54 (JST, the same hereafter), there was a Mw8.3 earthquake along the Central Coast of Chile [Offshore Central Chile]. Tsunami caused by this event, of height 78 cm at Kuji Port, Iwate prefecture, was observed along the Pacific coasts of Japan from Hokkaido to Kyushu, at Okinawa prefecture and Izu-Ogasawara Islands. The focal mechanism showed a reverse fault type with a compression axis in an E-W direction. This event occurred on the boundary between the Nazca and the South American plates.
There were 13 earthquakes of M6.0 or over until September 26 during the aftershock sequence, the maximum being the Mw7.0 one which occurred on September 17 at 08:18. The aftershock activity has gradually decreased thence.

Supplement

* On October 3, there was a M4.1 earthquake at a depth of approximately 10 km in the Satsuma region, Kagoshima prefecture. The focal mechanism showed a strike-slip fault type with a tension axis in an NW-SE direction. This event occurred within the crust.

* On October 6, there was a M5.0 earthquake at a depth of approximately 40 km, offshore Miyagi prefecture.


Note:  [ ] is the regional name of the epicenter used in the Japan Meteorological Agency announcement.
     GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) is a general name of satellite positioning system such as GPS.



Supplementary Information to the Evaluation of Seismic Activities for September 2015

October 9, 2015
Earthquake Research Committee

1 Major Seismic Activities

The following are the numbers of earthquakes by magnitude that occurred in Japan and the surrounding area during September 2015.

(reference)

The following events for the period from September 2014 to late August, 2015 have been listed as "Major Seismic Activities" in monthly "Evaluation of Seismic Activities."

  – Northern Tochigi Prefecture  M5.1 on September 3, 2014
(Depth of approximately 5 km)
  – Southern Ibaraki Prefecture  M5.6 on September 16, 2014
(Depth of approximately 45 km)
  – Northern Nagano Prefecture  M6.7 on November 22, 2014
(Depth of approximately 5 km)
  – Southern Tokushima Prefecture  M5.1 on February 6, 2015
(Depth of approximately 10 km)
  – Offshore Sanriku  M6.9 on February 17, 2015
  – Offshore Iwate Prefecture  M5.7 on February 17, 2015
(Depth of approximately 50 km)
  – Ocean Area near Yonagunijima  M6.8 on April 20
  – Ocean Area near Torishima  M5.9 on May 3, 2015
  – Offshore Miyagi Prefecture  M6.8 on May 13, 2015
(Depth of approximately 45 km)
  – Ocean Area near Amami Oshima  M5.1 on May 22
(Depth of approximately 20 km)
  – Northern Saitama Prefecture  M5.5 on May 25, 2015
(Depth of approximately 55 km)
  – Offshore West of Ogasawara Islands  M8.1 on May 30
(Depth of approximately 680 km)
  – Abashiri Region  M5.0 on June 4, 2015
(At a very shallow depth)
  – Northern Inland of Iwate Prefecture  M5.7 on July 10, 2015
(Depth of approximately 90 km)
  – Southern Oita Prefecture  M5.7 on July 13, 2015
(Depth of approximately 60 km)

2 Nationwide Seismic Activities by Region

(1) Hokkaido Region

There is no supplementary information for Hokkaido region.

(2) Tohoku Region

There is no supplementary information for Tohoku region.

(3) Seismic activities and crustal deformations associated with the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

– Within the aftershock area of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, the number of earthquakes of M4.0 or over, during one year from March 2012 (March 2012~February 2013) became less than one fifth, during one year from March 2013 (March 2013~February 2014) became less than one tenth, and during one year from March 2014 (March 2014~February 2015) became less than one fifteenth, of the number during about one year just after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, and thus the aftershock activity has been decaying.
According to the GNSS data, crustal deformation which is thought to be postseismic deformation has still been observed in a wide area from the Tohoku through the Kanto-Chubu regions. During about one month just after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, at the maximum value, the horizontal movement was 30 cm, and the vertical subsidence and upheaval were 6 cm and 5 cm, respectively. Although both the horizontal and the vertical deformations were almost 1cm during the recent one month, the deformation has not yet returned to the state before the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake.
In case of the earthquake (Mw 9.1) offshore west of the northern Sumatra Island in 2004, there were Mw8.6 after four months, Mw8.5 after about two and a half years, Mw7.5 after about five and a half years, and Mw8.6 after about seven and a half years in the region of outer rise. Thus, there have been large earthquakes for long period within the source area and its surroundings.
Although the aftershock activity is gradually decaying as a whole, the activity is still in higher state than the one before the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. In addition, there are overseas examples for gigantic earthquakes. Synthetically judging from these facts, within the aftershock area and its surroundings, there is fear that large earthquakes will occur from now on, and there is a possibility of strong shaking and high tsunami. It is necessary to pay attention continuously for it.

(4) Kanto-Chubu Region

–"In the GNSS data for the Tokai region, there has been no change of activity which is likely to be associated with the Tokai earthquake.":
(This evaluation is in agreement with the views presented at the regular meeting on September 28 of the Assessment Committee for Areas under Intensified Measures against Earthquake Disaster (reference below).)

(Reference)

Recent seismic and crustal activity in the Tokai region and its vicinity (Seismological and Volcanological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, September 28, 2015)
"No change of activity which is likely to be associated with the Tokai earthquake has been observed until now. (Excerpted)"

(5) Kinki-Chugoku-Shikoku Region

There is no supplementary information for Kinki-Chugoku-Shikoku region.

(6) Kyushu-Okinawa Region

There is no supplementary information for Kyushui-Okinawa region.

(7) Other Regions

–"On September 17 at 07:54 (JST, the same hereafter), there was a Mw8.3 earthquake along the Central Coast of Chile [Offshore Central Chile]. (Excerpted)":
Along the Coast of Chile, in 1960 there occurred a Mw9.5 earthquake which generated tsunami with damage of 142 lost and missing persons and so on in Japan ("Chile Earthquake Tsunami"). Recently there were a Mw8.8 earthquake in 2010 and a Mw8.1 one in 2014, both generated tsunamis observed in the wide area throughout Japan.


Reference 1
Earthquakes that are described in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity" (Monthly Report of Seismic Activity in Japan) have the following features.

  1. Events of M6.0 and greater, or events that have maximum seismic intensity 4 or greater
  2. Onshore events of M4.5 and greater that have maximum seismic intensity 3 or greater
  3. Events under the ocean areas of M5.0 or greater that have maximum seismic intensity 3 or greater

Reference 2
Information that is described in the "Supplementary Information to the Evaluation" includes:

  1. Reference information related to seismic activity described in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity"
  2. Recent earthquake activity over the past year related to the events described in "Major Seismic Activity" in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity"
  3. Seismic activity that has been evaluated, but not included in the "Evaluation of Seismic Activity" because it is within normal bounds and not prominent