7 August 2003 |
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion |
Earthquake Research Committee |
Evaluation of Seismic Activity in Northern Miyagi Prefecture
It is thought that the seismic activity was a foreshock - main shock - aftershock sequence. The main shock was a shallow event in the crust with a focal mechanism that showed a reverse fault with a compression axis in an E-W direction.
As of 17:00 on August 7, the largest aftershock was a M5.3 event (maximum seismic intensity 6 Lower) at 16:56 on July 26 that occurred near the northern end of the aftershock area. The M4.8 event at 10:22 on July 26 and the M5.0 event at 4:08 on July 28 had a maximum seismic intensity 5 Lower.
* According to the GPS data and the result of leveling, there was 15cm of movement in a southeastern direction and 10cm of lift was observed at the Yamoto observation station (Yamoto-cho, Monou-gun, Miyagi prefecture) which is located close to the epicenter. Also according to the result of leveling, the largest uplift of 15cm was observed in the area from Naruse-cho, Monou-gun, Miyagi prefecture to Yamoto-cho. The earthquake fault determined from the focal mechanism of the main shock and the aftershock activity distribution, was a reverse fault with a N-S strike and dipping toward the west, which is consistent with the source model determined from the GPS and level data.
*So far, from the field studies in the area, no surface faulting has been found.
*From the analysis of the main shock focal process, it is estimated that there was a region with large slip that occurred on the shallow portion of the fault surface.
*Aftershock activity has been declining normally and it is estimated that there is about a 20 percent chance of occurrence of M4.5 or greater aftershocks, within the 3 days from 17:00 on August 7. If an aftershock with a magnitude of about 4.5 occurs, there will presumably be shaking with a maximum seismic intensity 5 Lower. Also it is estimated that aftershocks of M2.7 or greater (approximately corresponding to events with intensity equal to or greater than1) may occur about 1.5 times per day until the end of August.